2020 Senatorial Election Predictions, 7-11-2019 to 7-17-2019

This week saw the introduction of serious candidates into races that were either stagnant or underdeveloped, now moving the map closer to realization. There were also a few surprises with who’s out of consideration, opening the gates for prospective candidates to forge ahead with their campaigns. Considering that there are now only about seven or eight months before the Democratic Presidential primaries and the lower ballot primaries, it’s getting to the point where you’re either in or out. Fundraising is a tricky thing to do last minute, and the donors want to know their guy. With that out of the way, here are this week’s highlights:

1. Kentucky

Amy McGrath announced her candidacy to challenge Mitch McConnell for his Senate seat this week. Within the first 24 hours of her campaign, she was able to raise over $2.5 million. Her campaign launch did have a stumbling block in the form of claiming that she would have confirmed Brett Kavanaugh in retrospect. This was a complete reversal of her initial opposition to the Supreme Court Justice, and was seen as a political maneuver instead of something genuine.

2. Tennessee

Bill Haslam has denied a run for the open Tennessee Senate Seat after months of indecision. This comes as Bill Hagerty, the US Ambassador to Japan, has announced his run for the seat. After announcing his intention, Trump immediately endorsed Hagerty’s run. Considering the complications that could arise from a contentious primary, like what is brewing with Kris Kobach and Roy Moore, the Republicans are likely trying to avoid any more disastrous nominees.

3. Kansas

The elephant in the room regarding this Senate race has been finally addressed. Former Governor of Kansas, Kathleen Sibelius, has declined a run. This leaves Nancy Boyka and Barry Grissom as the two Democratic candidates for now, while the Republicans are looking to prevent a Kobach candidacy which led to the loss of the governorship.

4. Wyoming

Cynthia Lummis has officially entered the Wyoming Senate race, potentially setting up a contest between her and sole House Representative, Liz Cheney. Rand Paul, who historically has disagreed with the latter’s father’s foreign policy, has given his endorsement to Lummis. According to the latest polling, Liz Cheney holds a double digit lead over Cynthia Lummis with over a majority of the vote.

5.) Fundraising And New Entries

John James (R) has raised $1.5 million over the last month.

John Cornyn (R) has raised $2.5 million, bringing his total to $9.2 million on hand.

Cory Gardner (R) has raised $2 million as of the last fundraising quarter.

David Perdue (R) has $4.9 million on hand for his re-election, while Teresa Tomlinson raised $520,000 over the past fundraising quarter.

Alabama Senate Race: Arnold Mooney raises $300,000, Tommy Tuberville raised $420,000, and Bradley Byrne raised over $750,000. John Merrill raised over $200,000, Roy Moore raised about $16,690.

Susan Collins raises $2 million in last quarter, Sara Gideon raises $1.1 million, and Betsy Sweet raises $87,000

Thom Tillis raises $1.9 million for re-election in last quarter, Garland Tucker raises less than $200,000

Jeanne Shaheen raises $1.9 million for re-election

Manny Sethi raises $542,300 in past three months and loans campaign $1 million, James Mackler raised $279,100 last quarter.

John Mues enters the Democratic primary for the Montana Senate seat.

Barbara Comstock and Dave Brat endorse Scott Taylor for Virginia’s Senate race.

Ann Griffin joins Republican primary for late John McCain’s Senate seat.

Ted Terry joins the Democratic primary in Georgia’s Senate election.

Chris Bell joins Democratic field to challenge John Cornyn.

Personal Ratings:

North Carolina: Lean Republican

Maine: Lean Republican

Alabama: Lean Republican

New Hampshire: Likely Democratic

Georgia: Likely Republican

Colorado: Toss-Up

Texas: Safe Republican

Michigan: Lean Democratic

Wyoming: Safe Republican

Kansas: Likely Republican

Tennessee: Safe Republican

Kentucky: Likely Republican

Sources:

https://www.nhregister.com/news/article/Early-Tennessee-Senate-race-hopefuls-post-14099251.php

https://www.concordmonitor.com/Kuster-early-fundraising-totals-heading-into-2020-27024058

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article232699592.html

Susan Collins and Sara Gideon are raking in cash for a potential 2020 Senate showdown

https://yellowhammernews.com/merrill-off-to-hot-fundraising-start-moore-off-the-pace/

https://yellowhammernews.com/byrne-leads-fundraising-in-alabamas-gop-senate-primary/

https://www.ajc.com/news/state–regional-govt–politics/tomlinson-fundraising-total-could-give-rival-democrats-opening/3arQ4sjD0i5cqvwcu3kGSN/

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/david-perdue-raises-nearly-more-for-election-bid/vN7c7gPouu9tuIkJpgItnO/

Cory Gardner’s $2 million second-quarter haul tops that of Democratic rivals

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/07/15/texas-senate-john-cornyn-mj-hegar-fundraising-2019/

https://wwmt.com/news/state/early-fundraising-gop-candidate-raises-15m-in-us-senate-race-trails-incumbent

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/07/03/democrat-chris-bell-plans-run-us-senate-bid-against-john-cornyn/

https://www.atlantamagazine.com/news-culture-articles/its-official-clarkston-mayor-ted-terry-of-queer-eye-fame-will-run-for-u-s-senate/

https://azdailysun.com/news/former-flagstaff-teacher-ann-griffin-challenges-sen-mcsally-in-republican/article_8014a7e2-19cd-5e65-af76-b33998994ed0.html

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/11/politics/cynthia-lummis-senate-run-wyoming/index.html

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/09/sebelius-wont-run-for-senate-in-kansas-1404154

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article232140317.html

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-ambassador-to-japan-bill-hagerty-to-make-us-senate-run-for-tennessee

https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/amy-mcgrath-probably-voted-confirm-brett-kavanaugh-supreme-court

 

 

 

 

 

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