The House Always Wins, 7-11-2019 to 7-17-2019

While a lot of drama has come to and from the House of Representatives, the actual talk about control of the chamber after 2020 has been a distant secondary concern. The Republicans, having been bruised in some very Republican districts in 2018, seem to be taking candidate recruitment seriously. Meanwhile, the Democrats are going all in on fundraising to protect their majority in the chamber. In fact, this week’s update is going to be talking about a lot of fundraising. With that said, here’s where the table stands:

1. New Jersey’s 5th Congressional District

Josh Gottheimer, who was originally elected in 2016, has made a name for himself as a bi-partisan, strong incumbent House member. In a state where the Republicans have one sole remaining House member, Chris Smith, Democrats seem eager to want to defend their super-majority of seats there. Gottheimer’s haul in fundraising for the past three months, $908,082, brings his war chest to $5.6 million dollars, a difficult enough obstacle for a challenger to overcome in a district that has only a pink Republican tilt. The general idea is this, Gottheimer’s haul nearly makes any challenger’s attempts fruitless, and the person who does challenge him is going to need to pull out all the stops.

2. California’s 21st Congressional District

David Valadao, who lost his house seat to current House member, TJ Cox, has some positive news in a recent poll done by the National Republican Congressional Committee. In the poll, Valadao leads Cox, 52% to 36%, with a few undecideds. To emphasize, this is a Republican poll, so there’s bound to be some bias attached to it. Still, in a district that is D+5, an early poll like this may inspire Valadao to consider running for his old House seat again.

3. New York’s 24th Congressional District

John Katko, the Republican serving in the most Democratic district represented by a Republican, has brought in a haul of $521,000 in the last fundraising quarter. This outpaces his three Democratic challengers and sets up a good chance to win re-election in 2020.

4. South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District

Joe Cunningham has raised over $1 million for his re-election campaign in the last quarter. This comes as he has four Republican challengers, including Nancy Mace, who I anticipate will be the frontrunner barring another heavyweight candidate enters. Re-work what I said about NY-24 for a Democrat, although it’s not the most Republican district held by a Democrat, and that would be Cunningham’s scenario for now.

5. Indiana’s 5th Congressional District

Christina Hale, the Democratic Lieutenant Gubernatorial Candidate for Indiana in 2016, has announced her bid for retiring Susan Brook’s seat. Hale comes with instant name recognition and a possibility of winning the House seat come 2020. She does, however, face a few disadvantages. Eric Holcomb, who announced his re-election bid this week, stands poised to cruise to victory due to high approval ratings, a significant war chest, and a state that has a natural affinity towards the Republicans. Also, with Mike Pence on the ballot in 2020, those who turned out for the Republicans in 2016 are likely to turn out again. The recent loss of moderate Joe Donnelly to Mike Braun is another indication of that.

6. Maine’s 2nd Congressional District

Jared Golden has raised over $700,000 for his upcoming re-election bid, three-fifths of what he had available when he unseated Bruce Poliquin in 2018, according to Bangor Daily News.

7. New Hampshire’s 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts

Anne Kuster has raised over $400,000 for her re-election bid over the last quarter, while Chris Pappas has raised $327,000 in the last quarter. Steve Negron has raised a five-digit summary over the last three months.

8. New Entries

Dan Schwartz (R), former Nevada Treasurer, declares run for Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District.

Timothy Alan Johnson joins Republican primary for Montana’s sole House seat. Matt Rains joins the Democratic primary.


Susan Collins and Sara Gideon are raking in cash for a potential 2020 Senate showdown

Gottheimer, the titan of congressional fundraising, brings in $907k in 2nd quarter

Dan Schwartz will challenge Susie Lee for Congress in 2020

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