When I did my assessment of Darin LaHood’s chances against incumbent Illinois governor J.B. Pritzker, I used the congressman as an example of what a conservative vs. liberal would look like on a good year for the GOP. What would happen if we used a significantly more moderate, “establishment” candidate? The answer would probably be a better result for the Republicans, albeit not enough to overcome the financial or electoral advantage of J.B. Pritzker. However, that being said, Kinzinger would have several advantages that other Republicans wouldn’t be able to tap into on the statewide level. Let’s address them.

The first major improvement would be the more moderate strain of conservative politics that Kinzinger would bring to the ballot. Although the downstate Republicans would probably scoff at the idea of finding a healthy medium with the Chicagoan area GOP, the reality is that the bulk of the voters in the state are located in Cook County and resulting suburbs. If the state GOP wants to win a race across all of Illinois, they have to increase their ranks within the suburbs and outlying areas. Kinzinger’s major contribution would be racking up the vote around Rock Island, Champaign, the surrounding counties around Chicago, Peoria, and other swing areas.

The second major improvement would be his establishment ties, allowing the more skeptical liberal and conservative wings of the party to chip in their support behind his compromise candidacy. This does mean that he can’t tap into either side too heavily as his credentials would stress pragmatism and electability over ideological zeal, but the state party wants to win above anything given their diminished status. Additionally, investing a ton of resources into any GOP candidate’s campaign in Illinois during 2022 will be an unlikely scenario. Chicago is a tough geographical hurdle to overcome, and the Republican Governors Association is also looking at pick-up opportunities in Kansas, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Minnesota, and Maine, among others. The Land of Lincoln is not on the top of GOP planners lists in 2022 and Kinzinger will be trying to ride a wave of anti-Pritzker, economic populism in his attempt for the office.

My general takeaway is that Kinzinger would do marginally better than Darin LaHood, earning about 47% of the vote, compared with 51% held by Pritzker. About 2% of the vote would vote third-party, write-in, etc. Although he would be a more moderate candidate, the vast economic advantage held by Pritzker from the beginning would be enough to keep the former veteran on the political defensive as he consolidates the vote around Cook County. Here is the map version of what I anticipate on happening, with the major differences being Champaign County along with more of the suburban counties supporting Kinzinger than LaHood: