There have been multiple updates regarding electoral politics from around the world that are worth commenting on. In Austria, the fate of the governing coalition in the federal government could come down to two parties that wouldn’t otherwise be thought of as serious political parties determining the balance of power. In Germany, the Alternative for Deutschland party is officially starting to come down from it’s sugar high after various European parties of similar types announced that they couldn’t work with them or distanced themselves. In Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu would be poised to lose the next parliamentary election if it were held today owing to a variety of factors that precede the October 7th attacks. In South Korea, conservatives received a variety of news that would give reason to worry about the future of the country. In South Africa, the nation’s political struggles have led to a political situation in the polling that could see the emergence of a new far-left party as the main left-leaning party struggles and the center-right rises. Let’s get to the stories.
In Austria, the emergence of the Bier and Communist Parties above the 5% mark have the political fate of the country after the next election being decided by the two parties. In Germany and Austria, there is a 5% threshold requirement to get representation in the national parliaments which usually allows smaller parties to gain access. This also means that the allocation of seats can become a divisive process depending on if parties can gain access to the bare minimum for access as witnessed by Die Linke, the far-left party in Germany, which underperformed at 4.8% in the last national election in 2021 but kept national representation because of an overperformance in a constituency in Berlin proper. Given that the main struggle for the center-right is that they cannot ally with the Freedom Party owing to their far-right tendencies, this means that the center-left has more options regarding coalition partners making their coalition more likely if the two smallest parties ascend beyond the electoral threshold. The Bier Party is currently at 8% while the Communists are hovering just at the 5% mark making the current polling a nail-biter from a statistician’s perspective.
In Germany, the Alternative fur Deutschland party recently experienced the setback that national leaders had been hoping for with recent foreign contemporaries condemning them and refusing to work with them if they gained power. This reflects the weakness of the populist right in Europe in that the ironically pan-European anti-EU skepticism of these parties falls apart when the coalition between the populists in other countries refuse to assist one another as did France and Italy’s far-right turn on the AfD. This has long-lasting implications for Hungary ahead of the next presidential election in Poland in 2025 when Andrzej Duda will be term-limited and the center-left in the country could feasibly signal a shift away from defending Hungary against it’s more controversial actions within the European Union. This also comes at a necessary junction when three East German state elections are scheduled in Germany this year meaning that a poor showing there by the AfD might further deflate the far-right’s hold on power in that region of the country.
In Israel, while elections shouldn’t be held until the Israelis are in agreement that it is safe and secure to do so given the military situation in Gaza, Iran, etc., the current polling shows that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party would lose a large number of seats owing to mass frustration with the country’s current situation. This has roots in the judicial overhaul proposal where Israel lacks a written constitution making the courts a necessary protective measure against possible tyranny, but also in Netanyahu’s long political history in the country where his legacy as a leader of the country for decades in addition to accusations made against him regarding corruption have worn on the general public. In short, while there is a public incentive to finish the war in as complete a manner as possible, Netanyahu consequently faces daunting electoral odds in the next election which will almost certainly be wanted after the foreign policy worries that followed the attacks from Hamas on October 7th.
In South Korea, there were two negative stories that affected conservatives in the country. The first was that the 2024 legislative elections were won by the center-left Democratic Alliance which performed well on the western half of the country while the conservative People Power party performed better on the eastern half. The split in seats broke down 169 seats for the Democratic Alliance versus 109 seats for People Power. This also comes as South Korea’s already infamously low fertility rates have fallen even further with early numbers for the year showing steep declines with January 2024 having only around 20,000 births across the entire country (estimate, not exact number, will be in sources). Put together, these two factors paint a very negative picture if you are a nationalistic Korean in South Korea looking for something to affirm your beliefs.
Finally in South Africa, the political situation in the country is disintegrating between racial strife, economic woes, and now a fracturing of the main left-wing party. The African National Congress is currently polling at a low point of 37% of the vote with a small incremental rise for the center-right Democratic Alliance at 25-27% and a small decrease for the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters with another far-left party nipping at their heels. The reason that this next election could matter greatly is that the failing economy, power grid, foreign policy commitments, and treatment of the white minority could all backfire immensely with the country’s GOP receding and the relative stability of the country on the African continent being subject to the coups that have befallen other sub-Saharan African nations in the past year. This could also spark a refugee crisis where other Anglophonic nations like the United States, Canada, etc., need to plan to take in thousands of South African descents of white British, Dutch, and other white minorities in South Africa.
Sources: Judge rules that “Kill the boer – Kill the farmer” is not hate speech | GroundUp
2024 South African general election – Wikipedia
2024 South Korean legislative election – Wikipedia
Next Israeli legislative election – Wikipedia
Next German federal election – Wikipedia
2025 Polish presidential election – Wikipedia
Germany: Millions protest the far right, fearful of a new Nazi threat | AP News
2021 German federal election – Wikipedia
South Africa v. Israel (Genocide Convention) – Wikipedia
Brics: What is the group and which countries have joined? (bbc.com)
2024 Austrian legislative election – Wikipedia
This Land Is Our Land: Expropriation without Compensation in South Africa (harvard.edu)
South Africa Crime statistics for third-quarter of 2023: Here’s what you must know – Swisher Post
The Conservatarian Millennial 