Strange Numbers #77, The MTG Internal Poll and What It Means

For all of the vitriol directed at Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, Nancy Pelosi, etc., they are effective at acting as boogeyman for Republican donors eager for symbolic, versus actual, victories. Consider the amount of money raised against them, donors unwisely spent millions on longshot bids for Congress instead of investing on battleground Republicans that outperformed Donald Trump on the ballot in 2020. Had some of those millions been directed at winnable races, Republicans could have feasibly flipped the House to GOP control as congressional Democrats suffered from a drop off of votes down-ballot. Congressional Democrats are about to make the same mistake by continually feuding with Marjorie Taylor Greene, a representative with several gaffes under her belt but no major strikes that would dictate a removal from public office.

            Coming from an internal poll from the Greene campaign, 71% of respondents from Georgia’s 14th Congressional District are supporting the congresswoman with 1% supporting her main primary challenger, 0% supporting another challenger, and the rest being undecided. This warrants an admission of something that I thought would be true to be false, that Greene would face a stiff challenge from a well-financed Republican challenger. Much of this was fueled after her brief flirtation with QANON and the insanity that provoked. However, her ability to challenge the progressives in the squad with fierce tenacity has since paid dividends to conservatives viewing weakness in the Republican establishment. Put another way, she, despite her early hurdles, has proven to be a thorn in the Democratic side to the delight of her constituents.

            What this translates to in a general sense is that Democrats cannot stand the congresswoman going as far as wanting to expel her from the chamber. The problem they face in that effort is that Republicans are about to win the House, both opening a can of worms for Democrats in the midst of ethical disputes as well as being metaphorical boogeymen for the right. Assuming that Democrats could expel Greene with vulnerable Republican votes, the GOP could then plot the same action against the more controversial members of The Squad. Furthermore, Marjorie Taylor Greene could theoretically become a martyr for the Republican cause in the same way that Donald Trump was after his first impeachment effort failed. The related backlash would deepen electoral wounds heading into 2022 for the Democratic Party. With that understanding, what does this mean for the anti-Greene crowd’s options?

            The short answer is that they should hope that Republicans take control in Congress and then relegate the congresswoman to a lower-level committee assignment like the Science Committee. From that position of obscurity, her actual power in Congress will be fairly limited and her feuding with Kevin McCarthy won’t offer much in promotional opportunities. Furthermore, it would be better for the Democratic Party if they didn’t fixate on MTG, Lauren Boebert, or other safe Republicans in solidly Republican seats. Gerrymandering alone can fix the lines of power and the expectation that a few thousand Democrats who are impassioned against their representative will defeat a quarter million Republicans in a solidly Republican district is severely unlikely. Barring some horrendous scandal that makes Greene truly unelectable, she won’t be going anywhere. Hence, Democrats should redirect their efforts at the Don Bacons, Ashley Hinsons, etc. in Congress, the path to power is through their districts instead.

Sources: PollTracker on Twitter: “2022 #GA14 Republican Primary Poll: Marjorie Taylor Greene 71% Charles Lutin 1% Jennifer Strahan 0% Neighborhood Research and Media/@mtgreenee Internal ~ 388 LV ~ 12/13-12/22 https://t.co/AbLIu0rASo” / Twitter

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