The major question following the Alabama Supreme Court’s decision to declare that there were no protections for in-vitro fertilization before the state legislature stepped in to codify such protections was how that would affect the GOP at the ballot box. Obviously, abortion was a major dud for the GOP in 2022 with the party suffering losses with candidates that couldn’t navigate a safe territory that respected women while also maintaining a viable pro-life position, but the in-vitro fertilization situation was novel in that it dealt with the subject of embryos and if they could be used. Because the abortion issue was so disastrous for the GOP in the special elections leading up to the 2022 midterms and the midterms themselves, the issue of in-vitro fertility, an even more sensitive and less controversial subject, might be seen as even more caustic for the GOP. The special election in Alabama on March 26th, 2024, panned out in that direction at the very least.
The Trump +1 district for the state legislature around Huntsville, Alabama gave Democrat Marilyn Lands 65% of the vote versus her Republican opponent in a special election in what was seen as a dramatic overperformance of expectations. The seat was marginally expected to flip to the Democrats based on the controversy, but the margin of defeat for the Republican presents the in-vitro fertilization issue as the next kryptonite issue for the GOP if they cannot manage to nip the allegation that the party wants to overregulate fertility treatments in the bud. Furthermore, this victory shouldn’t have been as lopsided given the absolute destitute nature of the Alabama Democratic Party, but it reflects how one galvanizing issue can be enough to energize voters to overcome the structural malaise of their party to deliver victorious results over the juggernaut in state politics.
On the state legislative front, this could be disastrous for the GOP for a variety of reasons. The state GOP in New Hampshire is perilously close to losing it’s grip on the state legislature, the state GOPs in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin could all be sent reeling for different reasons owing to lost special elections, the in-vitro issue, or redistricting, and a series of bad statewide candidates in North Carolina could reduce the margin of Republican lawmakers in the state lawmakers beneath the supermajority required to override vetoes. This will be necessary to consider when factoring if Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson loses the governorship to AG Josh Stein and Democrats control the office for another four-eight years depending on whom the Republicans front in 2028. While the national GOP hasn’t collapsed entirely from the party’s recent woes, down-ballot Republicans have been suffering immensely in the past few months.
All of this is to paint a disastrous image for 2024, an election marred by an unpopular Republican leading the ticket who is bankrupt whom some people won’t support under any circumstances, down-ballot candidates who will get dragged for an issue that gets tangentially connected to the abortion argument, and a repeating electoral failure from 2022 where a winnable election is squandered because of Republican overreach. The phrase “don’t fly too close to the sun” comes to mind immediately when thinking of this election cycle where the indicators should’ve pointed to a more easily winnable election season, but the warning signs from 2022 are already manifesting with Democratic dark money boosting controversial Senate nominees, weak House challengers punching above their weight, and fringe issues undermining an underfinanced GOP facing a weak, but well-equipped and organized Democratic Party. Paint me skeptical that this all resolves without some serious self-reflection from Republican officials telling their more ideological members to, in some way, calm down.
2024 United States state legislative elections – Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_States_state_legislative_elections
The Conservatarian Millennial 