In the most recent retirement from the House of Representatives, Anne McLane-Kuster (D-NH) announced that she was retiring this past week in a surprise announcement opening a mildly competitive seat in Western New Hampshire that the GOP could theoretically contest this year. While the seat went to McLane-Kuster by about 11% in the 2022 elections, the seat remains marginally within the specter of Republican viability depending on if they can get a capable candidate to run for the seat and fend off any DCCC-backed dark money backed challengers. The question becomes if they can manage to make the seat competitive in the post in-vitro fertilization court case or if that Alabama court case was a regional affair that was handled by Republicans as a blip on the radar.

            Starting off with the context of the 2022 midterms, the GOP believed they had a strong contender in George Hansel, the former mayor of Keene, New Hampshire, who would have crossover appeal with some New Hampshire independents and Democrats as well as Republicans. The DCCC under then-chairman Sean Patrick Maloney successfully intervened with dark money antics and promoted Robert Burns who was seen as more unelectable who then proceeded to lose the election by the aforementioned 11%. The issue for the GOP is that Hansel may be worried about the DCCC engaging in similar tactics and the NRCC having learned nothing from the experience. Additionally, the other candidates mentioned by RRH Elections as possible candidates such as outgoing Governor Chris Sununu may not be considering a campaign for Congress this late after the characterization of the House this late in the campaign cycle. In short, what should be a more competitive seat is probably not going to be as competitive as it has been in recent years.

            This also comes as Congressman Mike Gallagher has announced that he will resign from Congress early setting off a special election in Wisconsin, creating a narrower majority for the House Republican Conference to govern with. This has been compounded with other exits which puts Speaker Mike Johnson’s hold on the conference in question as well as the question of if Republicans can feasibly keep their turnover down for the rest of the year. The primary election season has just started this year and Republicans are at risk of losing Congressman Tony Gonzalez (R-TX) in a run-off election, and therefore a seat to a Democratic challenger, if his right-leaning challenger defeats him. Given how poorly GOP incumbents are doing at fending off primary challengers, the warning signs are there for either some close calls for moderate Congressmen/Congresswomen or for some surprise results to the frustration of the NRCC.

Sources: 2024 United States House of Representatives elections – Wikipedia

NH-2: Rep. Ann McLane Kuster (D) Will Not Seek Reelection (rrhelections.com)

‘I didn’t expect to win this big’: Marilyn Lands reflects on election win, previews days ahead (msn.com)2024 United States House of Representatives elections in New Hampshire – Wikipedia