Whenever different states are being polled regarding third-party performances that could take votes away from either Donald Trump or Joe Biden, the Libertarian vote continues to surprise me. After having suffered through the financial woes of dealing with the Mises Caucus, the internal fighting with the left-libertarians like Joshua Reed Eakle wanting to fight easy battles instead of incursions on civil liberties coming from the left, and the general disarray of horrible statements regarding child labor, John McCain, and January 6th, there are still 2% of voters who are still saying they will vote Libertarian. In particular, the polling has been reliably using Lars Mapstead’s name as a placeholder candidate as their generic Libertarian owing to the fact that the party has ditched using a carpetbagger from another party, and Robert Kennedy, Jr. appears as if he will spearhead his own independent bid for office. Will the Libertarians get 2% of the vote like the polling says or is the third-party vote being overhyped as it usually is every cycle?
To answer the latter half of the question, I am skeptical that RFK, Jr. is going to secure support in the 10-20% range nationally for his bid for President owing to the rigid two-party system of the American political system. In Mississippi, the voters of that state had the choice in 2023 between the Governor who openly cheered the Jackson water crisis, Mississippi welfare scandal, racially insensitive comments, endorsed a proxy white nationalist bid to be the lieutenant gubernatorial nominee, and even then some Republicans chose the man who could care less about governing the Magnolia State than a man descended from the same family as Elvis Presley and was broadly popular. If that isn’t a microcosm of how divided into their camps most voters are, I don’t know what else is.
However, the Libertarian vote should theoretically be eclipsed by even the Cornel West vote given the implosion of the national party and smaller state parties that has rattled the finances and ballot access efforts. Nevertheless, the generic support nationally rests around 2%. Some of these voters I anticipate are going to be lower-class Republican-leaning voters who disagree with supporting Israel and Ukraine and want the United States to take a backseat to foreign policy. This is juxtaposed to the standard Republican MAGA voter which may be skeptical of Ukraine aid because of Zelenskyy, but is usually supportive of Israel and the Jewish people. In other words, the pro-Libertarians are the types of voters that would ruffle the feathers of a Ben Shapiro foreign policy preferer who would suggest taking a hardline against the Palestinians and the Iranians.
There may also be some Democrats who don’t believe that Jill Stein or Cornel West are the path forward and may seek a moderate middle third party to choose from. While most of those voters would probably go for Robert Kennedy, Jr. owing to his namesake, the issue becomes that Kennedy does have his critics in the Democratic Party. There may be some people who want to vote Libertarian because they represent the usual protest vote against the two parties even if not much is known about the party candidate themselves. The irony of some Democrats choosing Joshua Smith, a candidate that is further to the right on abortion than most Republicans, isn’t lost on those who have been following the Libertarian primaries, although it would be hilarious to see. All told though, between the Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, I doubt that this contingent of the vote makes up 2% of the vote.
My prediction is going to be somewhat elastic in that this election could be a notably low turnout affair given the amount of third-party voting happening. Republicans perform better when third-parties are on the ballot as seen by George W. Bush in 2000 with Ralph Nader (Green) and Donald Trump in 2016 with Gary Johnson (Libertarian) and Jill Stein (Green). Democrats are worried about third-parties so much to the point that they are dedicating an entire branch of resources to dealing with them, most of it I imagine will be taking away ballot access in the most unironically anti-democracy litigation that the United States has seen since the 2020 election. Between Jill Stein, Cornel West, Robert Kennedy Jr., and the Libertarian candidate, there is a double-digit percentage of the vote that could conceivably be siphoned from the left with only a meager fraction taken from Donald Trump in the form of the Constitution and American Independent Parties. If Libertarians are cracking 2% nationally, it will be because people just know that the Libertarians are there as the generic throwaway protest vote and that the turnout is so horrendous that a party as fragmented and feeble as theirs can succeed in meeting low expectations because the zeitgeist of the country is so horrible politically anyway.
Sources: Third party and independent candidates for the 2024 United States presidential election – Wikipedia
2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries – Wikipedia
Democrats prepare to go to war against third-party candidates (nbcnews.com)
GOP brass works to keep peace after Reeves wades into LG primary – Mississippi Today
Mises Caucus Takes Control of Libertarian Party (reason.com)Libertarian Party of NH mocks death of John McCain, draws fierce backlash (nebraska.tv)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Mississippi_gubernatorial_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election
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