There have been a number of election-related news stories that are worth discussing that I am going to be covering here. For the sake of brevity, I will also be covering the election results from June 4th, 2024, with the highlights to avoid forcing readers to have to keep scrolling through my site looking for that update. In gubernatorial and Senatorial news, there are several new faces that are flirting with statewide runs which could make the 2026 and 2027 elections fairly interesting. Also, there is polling drama in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District where Congressman Bob Good (R-VA) could become the only incumbent Congressman on the GOP side to be defeated in his primary (barring the AL-01 double-bunking contest). There are also foreign policy news that are worth discussing, so let’s get to the stories.
Starting off with the election results from June 4th, 2024, the Senate primary in New Jersey produced an upset in a positive way for Senate Republicans with moderate businessman Curtis Bashaw (R-NJ) winning his primary to take on Congressman Andy Kim (D-NJ) and indicted incumbent Bob Menendez (I-NJ). The reason why this primary matters so much is that Bashaw’s reputation as a moderate and as a wealthy businessman could give dividends in the general election where Kim is damaged by Menendez’s vote-splitting and the damage from the indictment. The primary also matters because this is the first major primary where Donald Trump’s preferred candidate has lost their seat, reflecting a crack in a record that he holds sacrosanct. This record will be important to crack for symbolic reasons if Trump loses in 2024 as it will keep problematic Republicans from being propped up by Democratic dark money like the DCCC did in 2022 and then allow Democrats to win the general election contests.
2024 United States Senate election in New Jersey – Wikipedia
In Iowa, the primaries for two congressional seats were more hotly contested than they should’ve been with Congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IO) winning re-nomination to her district by a slim 56-44% margin over a lesser-known challenger and Congressman Randy Feenstra fending off his challenger with 60% to 40%. The good news for both parties is that the two open seats that are likely to remain in their incumbent party’s hands in Montana and New Jersey produced the most moderate candidates for the congressional seats. While this may not seem like the most major story that has happened this week, Democrats choosing a competent candidate instead of a “girl boss” candidate and Republicans potentially avoiding a Freedom Caucus member is sure to make Speaker Mike Johnson happy. This is not to be dismissive of Elsie Arntzen, but the Freedom Caucus is more the problem at fault here.
June 4 Live Election Results: Key Primary Races to Watch – The New York Times (nytimes.com)
Moving on the electoral news for the week, there was news that several figures were considering statewide bids for high-level offices. Congressman Buddy Carter (R-GA) is considering a run for Georgia’s Senate seat currently held by Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA), something that could place him in contest with Governor Brian Kemp (R-GA). However, I would offer the alternative justification that Republicans need to have back-up candidates for offices like Ossoff’s seat in the event that Kemp decides not to run for the Senate seat, although one would hope that Republicans would give preference to Kemp for Ossoff’s seat. Given that Raphael Warnock (D-GA) is up for election in 2028, Republicans will have another chance in the very near future if Kemp runs for Senate in 2026.
Carter says he’s weighing 2026 run against Ossoff – The Current (thecurrentga.org)
2026 United States Senate election in Georgia – Wikipedia
In the 2027 gubernatorial election in Mississippi, there is already conversation surrounding potential candidate Thomas Duff (R-MS) with the headline from Mississippi Today saying the richest man in the poorest state wants to be governor. The reason why this is significant is that the past two governor elections have been surrounded by Governor Tate Reeves being surrounded by unpopularity in both of his bids, the second bid in 2023 being the worst performance for a Republican since 1999. While Duff has a history of being a philanthropist, the headline’s goal is to attempt to frame Duff as potentially out of touch with the state’s political demography, namely poorer residents. However, wealthier GOP candidates have gone on to donate vast sums of money to their communities for personal improvement in more efficient displays of philanthropy than government spending. The question becomes what the state GOP wants when Reeves will be term-limited and if the party is willing to risk another squeaker election again. Let us pray for an election where we don’t have to hear about a certain candidate named McDaniel again.
2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election – Wikipedia
2027 Mississippi gubernatorial election – Wikipedia
In New Jersey, talk radio host Bill Spadea (R-NJ) has joined the 2025 race for the Republican nomination in 2025 raising the number of serious candidates on the GOP side to four with two belonging to the conservative and two to the moderate wing. This raises some consternation among moderates who are worried a Trump endorsement of a controversial candidate, especially the headlines-raising Ed Durr (R-NJ), could throw the New Jersey governorship to Democrats for the third consecutive cycle. This is as Governor Phil Murphy is struggling to maintain his Democratic machine’s grip on power having the county line defeated on the Democratic side, his wife denied a Senate seat this year, and his difficulty in breaking out as a potential presidential frontrunner for Democrats in the near future.
Jacob Rubashkin on X: “Someone is wrong here – who will it be? https://t.co/klx4uzG5NK” / X
2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Virginia – Wikipedia
In polling news, there were a flurry of new polls released ahead of the Virginia primary in the 5th Congressional District which dominantly show state senator John McGuire (R-VA) leading Congressman Bob Good (R-VA) who has alienated every wing of the GOP base all at once, something that takes a remarkable amount of effort. This led to some competing polls with one suggesting that Good was actually ahead by 9% coming from Neighborhood Research & Media, an outlier poll aligned with the Congressman. While that poll will be tested to see the validity of it’s findings, Good has been sent a cease-and-desist letter regarding the pairing of Trump’s endorsement next to his name in which he endorsed against the Congressman owing to Good’s endorsement of DeSantis in the Republican presidential primary. Overall, if Good manages to survive this negativity surrounding his campaign, his future political prospects will be limited based on the enemies he has made in and out of Congress.
2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia – Wikipedia
2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election – Wikipedia
2024 North Carolina Attorney General election – Wikipedia
There was also polling from North Carolina and West Virginia that tells a compelling story regarding Republican chances in both states. While the West Virginia Senate race was considered a safe Republican race already, the most recent polling has the current match-up between Gov. Jim Justice and his lesser-known Democratic opponent as a 20%+ margin of victory for the Republican making this seat one of the obvious flips of the night. This also comes as, despite waves of negative advertising in the hops of dragging his campaign down, Democrats haven’t been able to sink Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s campaign for Governor down with him virtually tying with Attorney General Josh Stein in what should be a warning sign to the state Democratic Party. The Attorney General race between Congressmen Dan Bishop (R-NC) and Jeff Jackson (D-NC) is also a tight heat.
Political Roundup for June 5, 2024 (rrhelections.com)
López Obrador’s Reforms Threaten Mexican Democracy (foreignpolicy.com)
Concluding on foreign policy news, Claudia Steinbaum of MORENA won her election to be Mexico’s next President by a large margin concluding what has been an election season capped off by large-scale violence across the nation. This also comes after the term-limited Obrador was criticized for weakening electoral safeguards in the nation after the country’s less-than-stellar attempts with democracy previously. This also comes as India’s ruling party under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, arguably the most important part of the United States’ plan to keep China in check regarding naval and army power in Asia, lost seats in the country’s most recent election, but will hold on cementing Modi’s hold on power for the foreseeable future. These developments can be seen as negative events for American foreign policy as the country has to contend with potentially more left-leaning, aka more adversarial, political forces in friendly countries.
The Conservatarian Millennial 