There have been new developments in the Senate that are worth commenting on that have happened this week. In the Ohio Senate primary, to the delight of incumbent Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Republicans nominated Bernie Moreno (R-OH) as their Senate nominee for 2024 helping to keep the seat more competitive than it needed to be. In new polling, the Maryland Senate race appears to be deeply competitive with Democrats David Trone and Angela Alsobrooks both performing poorly in comparison to former Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) in the staunchly Democratic state. Also, other polling in battleground states is showing closely fought contests where Republicans could feasibly take advantage of the sprawling map to get numerous victories in the Senate. Let’s get to the stories.
Starting off with the Senate primary in Ohio, there were two major takeaways from the results that were self-evident. The first major takeaway was that Bernie Moreno’s domination across the state was near universal with his overperformance in the urban areas being enough to outweigh Republican enthusiasm for Matt Dolan around his base in Cleveland, specifically Cuyahoga County. The second major takeaway is that this was a second major blow to Secretary of State Frank LaRose’s (R-OH) political fortunes after the botched referendum effort to keep pro-life provisions in the state in 2023. The latter point might be more important moving into 2026 as LaRose will likely be thinking of what office to run for that he can clear a field more easily instead of fiercely contesting the governorship where there is already stiff resistance from the less damaged and battle-tested Attorney General Dave Yost (R-OH) and Lieutenant Governor Mike Husted (R-OH). Regardless, Sherrod Brown is eagerly looking forward to having more funds enter his race on his behalf as Democrats believe there is a greater chance they can hold his Senate seat.
Moving onto Maryland, the latest Washington Post poll has Larry Hogan leading both Trone and Alsobrooks with about 50% of the vote compared to 36-37% of the vote, a paltry total for a Democrat in the solidly blue state. This is significant because the field on the Republican side has already been cleared for Hogan with the only opposition facing him being little-known candidates who are packed into a crowded field, all who have to face Hogan’s united base which helps him in an ironic twist of what usually happens in the post-Trumpian Republican primary landscape. While the actual election will likely be significantly closer, Trone is burning through tens of millions to survive the primary while Alsobrooks is underperforming Trone but is performing better in the Democratic primary. If Democrats are having to spend money in Maryland to fend off Hogan, that offsets the momentary advantage they receive in getting Moreno as the Republican nominee in Ohio. It also doesn’t help that Congressman David Trone was caught on a hot mic using a racial slur referring to black Americans, a crucial constituency that he will need to turn out in droves to counteract Larry Hogan’s crossover appeal with non-black voters and especially in Prince George’s County.
Concluding on other battleground polling, there was polling from the aforementioned Ohio that had Moreno losing to Brown by about 4-5% according to East Carolina University and SurveyUSA polling. In Wisconsin, the 7% gap between Senator Tammy Baldwin (R-WI) and Eric Hovde (R-WI) has narrowed to a 3% margin according to the Emerson College with the current standing being 45%/42%. In Michigan, the relatively underfinanced former Congressman Mike Rogers (R-MI) is only 2% behind Elissa Slotkin at 41%/39% and has the Trump endorsement eliminating the prospect of a weaker candidate clearing the primary field and losing the general election. Even the perennially strong Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) is finding herself at 49% of the vote against little-known Republican challengers reflecting how Minnesota could be a battleground on the presidential level carrying coattails that affect her down-ballot race as well. In short, with the polling being so competitive for battleground Democrats, this should be worrying for the DSCC which has to decide where to invest resources with so many contests up at the same time.
Sources: Democrat frontrunner in tight Senate race drops racial slur during House hearing (msn.com)
2024 United States Senate election in Ohio – Wikipedia
2024 United States Senate election in Michigan – Wikipedia\
2024 United States Senate election in Maryland – Wikipedia
Wisconsin 2024: Trump 46%, Biden 43% – Emerson Polling (emersoncollegepolling.com)2024 United States Senate election in Minnesota – Wikipedia
The Conservatarian Millennial 