There have been several new developments regarding the House of Representatives in the past few weeks that are worth talking about. With a few major congressional primaries having now concluded, the general feeling of what to expect from the primary season can be summarized barring a major intervention or lack thereof from the NRCC. In addition to the Senate, the NRCC is learning that where it directly intervenes on behalf of a stronger candidate, the party is inclined to perform better where the DCCC will attempt to influence the party voters to choose weaker candidates to make Democratic odds better. This comes as the hypothetical battleground for both parties come down to about 20 seats in the House of Representatives, depending on what seats are considered Toss-Ups, leaving little room for error regarding the parties’ efforts in trying to win or keep a majority. Let’s get to the stories.

            So far, the primaries that have passed for the House and Senate have been mostly focused in the Southeastern United States in states like Arkansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Texas. With the addition of Illinois, a significant number of competitive contests have already been decided ahead of the Fall, but fell under the radar because of the-then undecided presidential nomination contests happening on the Republican and Democratic side. What has stood out this campaign cycle has been the weakness of incumbents against upstart challengers across multiple states.

Congressman Steve Womack (R-AR) won re-nomination by a paltry 55%/45% spread against state senator Clint Penzo despite having universal support behind him. Congressman Tony Gonzalez (R-TX) is having to fend off a run-off election with YouTuber Brandon Herrera (R-TX) who could put his border seat congressional district at risk of flipping to the Democratic Party because of Herrera’s weakness in the general election. Congressman Mike Bost (R-IL) barely won re-nomination against Darren Bailey (R-IL) despite having the backing of the establishment and former President Donald Trump with a 51%/49% spread. If these primary challenges are indicative of what competitive primaries could result in later in the season, there could be the incentives for the DCCC to rehash their playbook from 2022 and choose unelectable candidates again for the general election for the Republican side to prop up with dark money.

If control of the House hinges on a few competitive seats, the reality is that a few primaries that are determined by dark money fueled antics could decide the fate of the two parties. So far, Democrats have inoculated themselves against the moderate wing of the party pushing back on progressives like Jesus Chuy Garcia (D-IL) whose Twitter account called a dissenter a “retard” while also pushing back on non-incumbents who have challenged members for other reasons. One can think of Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) berating her staff in the lead-up to the Houston mayoral race and still getting re-nominated despite lacking the behavioral temperament to be let near interns looking for job experience at minimal pay, but I digress. The point is that the Senate nonsense is just starting for the GOP, but the House nonsense has been going on for the past few contests. The NRCC under Congressman Richard Hudson (R-NC) needs to get serious about stopping these problems if they want to hold the House, especially in the wake of surging retirements mid-term.

Sources: Mike Gallagher to leave House early in blow to Speaker Johnson’s GOP majority (msn.com)

2024 United States House of Representatives elections – Wikipedia

2022 United States House of Representatives elections – Wikipedia

2024 United States Senate elections – Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_ratings