There have been a number of election stories that have caught my attention this week as I have attempted to comment on a variety of different stories encompassing the political realm. In the House, more information about the special election regarding Colorado’s now-vacant 4th Congressional District is becoming known. New polling is also available that gives reason for both parties to be optimistic and to be negative at the same time. In the Senate, Democrats are lamenting having to fend off a potential Bob Menendez Independent Senate bid as it could mean thousands of votes taken from the Democratic ticket in November making the 2024 race a competitive, albeit Democratic friendly election. The same can be said in Maryland where polling is repeatedly showing former Governor Larry Hogan defeating both of his potential Democratic opponents for the open Senate seat, but especially faring better against one over the other. There are also some updates regarding foreign politics news and other miscellaneous updates worth commenting on as well. Let’s get to the updates.
Starting off with the House, the special elections to fill two vacant seats in the House of Representatives have more information after some previous uncertainty. Congressman Kevin McCarthy’s exit from the House left his 20th Congressional District open with the seat being contested by two Republicans ensuring the seat remains in GOP hands, but with the former Speaker backing his preferred pick Vince Fong over the conservative insurgent Mike Boudreaux. With the seat being the most safely Republican seat in California as a gerrymandered Republican vote sink, the winner will likely hold the office for as long as they wish so long as they don’t burn bridges with their voters. This means that if Fong is going to get in the door and keep the seat from nominating someone from the more activist class, the best time to do so is this special election.
Moving onto the Colorado 4th Congressional District special election, the GOP chose Greg Lopez, who has run for the governorship previously, as their nominee while Democrats have nominated Trisha Calvarese, who previously worked on the Bernie Sanders campaign. In the wake of the in-vitro fertilization controversy from earlier this year, Colorado’s rebuke of Republicans in the past few years, and the backlash surrounding Lauren Boebert’s carpetbagging, one could make the case that better candidate selection and flooding the space with money could have made the GOP fight for the seat. However, the choice of Calvarese, a former Bernie Sanders acolyte, as their nominee essentially dooms any prospect of Democrats flipping the seat in Republican-leaning district. The choice of Lopez as the likely frontrunner on the GOP side also means that Lauren Boebert doesn’t have to face an incumbent Congressmen/Congresswoman, if he wins, when she carpetbags in the primary which would’ve made her job as an unpopular incumbent in her old district even harder.
Regarding primary challenges, the Congressman most at risk of being primaried from all sides is Congressman Bob Good (R-VA) who managed to inflame Kevin McCarthy’s (R-VA) network of support, the Trump network of support by endorsing Ron DeSantis, and then local politicos in Virginia by endorsing fringe evangelical candidates like Jarome Bell (R-VA). While other McCarthy-backed candidates might face tougher challenges in defeating incumbents like Catherine Templeton (R-SC) facing off against incumbent Nancy Mace (R-SC), Good is the most at risk because of his ability to galvanize everyone and everything against him for a variety of reasons including his own conference members in Congress.
Concluding the coverage of the House on polling, there are four polls from three districts that give an idea of what could be warning signs for both parties. In the case of Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, primary polling shows that incumbent Congressman Dan Bacon (R-NE) is far ahead of his opponent Dan Frei according to the former’s internal polling showing a 50-point lead. The internal polling for Bacon’s Democratic opponent, Tony Vargas, shows that Bacon is leading in the general election as well with his lead over the Democrat by 2%. When accounting for the biases of the internal polling, one can imagine that the traditional wisdom of Republicans choosing normal political candidates in primaries usually produces better electoral results than non-incumbent Democrats. This comes as Gravis Marketing (not the best firm) released a poll showing that the 4th Congressional District would be theoretically competitive if Boebert won the nomination for the general election. Whereas Jerry Sonnenberg is ahead by a few percentage points, Boebert is behind by about 7%.
There was also an internal poll from New York’s 16th Congressional District that has George Latimer, the centrist challenger to Jamaal Bowman, ahead by about 20% in the Democratic primary for the deep-blue seat. Because of Bowman’s anti-Semitism and fire alarm stunt from earlier in the Congress, he has been painted as a vulnerable Congressman in the primary, but the fact that Democrats are struggling to coalesce around him suggests he could be in serious peril of losing his primary. This would make him one of several members of “The Squad” that could lose to centrists after outrage after the October 7th attacks revealed the anti-Semitism of the far-left wing of the Democratic Party boiling under the surface.
In the Senate, Democrats appear to be coalescing around Angela Alsobrooks for the Maryland Senate race in 2024 despite the fact that she polls slightly worse than David Trone in the general election. This is because of a racial slur that Trone allegedly said by accident in committee that has since cost him some African-American support, a key constituency in the Democratic Party for any rising Democrat in the state. This is happening as former Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) is polling ahead of both candidates in Washington Post, Goucher College, Braun Research, and Emerson College polling all showing anywhere from a small single-digit to a large double-digit lead. While the actual lead will probably come down to a few thousand votes based on turnout and crossover voting may not be as impressive as what polling is suggesting, Democrats may be forced to invest millions in this race just to keep it from being a wash negating any hope of making Ohio or Pennsylvania runaway contests.
There also appears to be worry about Sen. Bob Menendez (I-NJ) drawing up to 10% of the Democratic vote away from the Democratic nominee, likely to be outgoing Congressman Andy Kim (D-NJ). According to recent polling, up to 9-10% of Democrats would still back Menendez as a third-party option offering Republicans the chance to come within single digits of the office. When doubling that the office has been rattled by his scandal, this increases the chances that the office could theoretically flip to the GOP in an accidental scenario if Andy Kim is underfunded by the party trying to defend seats elsewhere (like the seat in Maryland that shouldn’t be theoretically competitive). When people are saying this is a rough map for Senate Democrats, this is a rough map.
In the Nevada Senate race, the backlash against Jewish Democrats may unseat Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) as she faces pressure from the far-left wing of her party to rebuke Israel, something that she as a Jewish Democrat refuses to do (good for her!). The Cook Political Report has moved the Nevada Senate race to a Toss-Up where the election could be a deciding factor if the GOP controls enough seats to block a possible judicial appointment by Joe Biden if he wins the presidential race. While the state has proven to be stubbornly Democratic in recent years, the electoral strength of Republicans despite demographic changes has proven resilient with the election of Gov. Joe Lombardo (R-NV) in 2022 who is being seen as a potential competitor to Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-NV) in 2028 if he can win re-election in 2026 against likely opponent Attorney General Aaron Ford (D-NV).
In the Governor elections, there have been two major updates regarding the 2024 elections. The North Dakota election now has a clear frontrunner with Congressman Kelly Armstrong (R-ND) getting an endorsement from Sen. John Hoeven (R-ND), a popular former Governor himself. This places him with a sizable name recognition advantage over Lieutenant Governor Tammy Miller (R-ND). The other major update comes out of Washington State where recent Echelon Insights polling shows that former Congressman Dave Reichert (R-WA) is polling 9% ahead of Attorney General Bob Ferguson for the Washington Governor election. If Republicans were to flip this uphill race, that would be the first time that they’ve flipped the race since the 1980s.
Concluding on foreign policy news, recent polling from Mexico shows that the presidential election favors Claudia Sheinbaum with 50% of the vote with her party MORENA (the party of current President Obrador) with her nearest opponent holding 38% of the vote. This is in line with other polling which has shown general dissatisfaction with the center-right party owing to historical problems with elections in the country and corruption in the government. Other miscellaneous news to round out the week is that abortion referendums are being planned in many battleground states in the United States to boost Democratic turnout where Democrats have usually won these referendums in overwhelming blowout victories.
2024 United States gubernatorial elections – Wikipedia
2024 Washington gubernatorial election – Wikipedia
2024 North Dakota gubernatorial election – Wikipedia
2024 United States House of Representatives elections – Wikipedia
2024 Colorado’s 4th congressional district special election – Wikipedia
California’s 20th congressional district – Wikipedia
2024 United States Senate elections – Wikipedia
2024 United States Senate election in New Jersey – Wikipedia
2024 United States Senate election in Maryland – Wikipedia
2024 United States Senate election in Nevada – Wikipedia
2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska – WikipediaOlivia Beavers on X: “NEWS: Kevin McCarthy isnt done trying to exact revenge on the Republicans who ousted him. A top McCarthy ally, Brian O. Walsh, is overseeing an attempt to recruit primary challengers to take on members of the infamous “Gaetz Eight” W/ @allymutnick https://t.co/RoR9QPvwEY” / X (twitter.com)
The Conservatarian Millennial 