While the main action in French politics in 2022 was between Renaissance (the spiritual successor to Le Republique En Marche!) and the National Rally, the 2027 election could look radically different. According to the polling, while they are still in third place nationally, the Socialist Party appears to be gaining from their slump in the 2022 election to a respectable third place as the mainstream alternative to Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. Let’s get to the stories.
Starting off with the national headlines, the polling slump regarding 2027 appears to be concluding with polls starting to slowly pick up. Keep in mind that France has stricter laws governing their elections than does the United States including campaign finance, talking about exit polling, etc., so there is less information to base the national zeitgeist of the state of the country off of. However, the sugar low of the country being forced between the incompetence of Emmanuel Macron costing the nation their neo-imperial holdings in Africa versus Marine Le Pen’s softened but still hard edge on the national stage is a bitter task for voters to be burdened to choose between. Whereas Americans lament the choice of two geriatric politicians of Donald Trump and Joe Biden of two opposing parties, Frenchmen are poised with the ugliness of choosing between the incompetent, narcissistic, and uncaring Macron successor or the far-right Le Pen or her successor (from the general characterizations of their politics).
The polling suggests that the Socialist Party has reached 13% in the polls nationally, a high for the party since the 2014 European election, and places them within range of getting second in the top-two system. Because France doesn’t elect presidents based on first-past-the-post, the second round is between whoever gets the most votes in first and second place meaning that the current line-up of that election appears to be the National Rally candidate and whomever the second-place candidate is. If the second placer is a Renaissance candidate, the National Rally has a better chance of riding Macron’s unpopularity to the presidency. If the Socialists win the second round, they stand a better chance of galvanizing the left, center, and some parts of the center-right against Le Pen or her alliance to form a majority in the second round. Context for those unaware of French to American political definitions, the Socialist Party in France is more similar to the Democratic Party in the United States than it is a Socialist Party in the vein of Leon Trotsky or Vladimir Lenin.
This begs the question: can the mainstream left and right parties (Les Republicans and Les Socialists) regain their mantle as the main powerbrokers in the country as France grapples with a foreign policy proxy battle with Russia in Africa and as the Ukrainian conflict continues to unfold? It appears that fatigue with Macron is unfolding as ten years is quickly approaching with his disapproval rising and his claim of term-limits being “bulls**t”. Renaissance hasn’t had the same lasting success down-ballot that one would expect from a long-term movement and most Frenchmen might be viewing Macron as the leader that they had in 2017 to stop Marine Le Pen. That might engender him to some people regarding his legacy, but his party cannot run on legacy when the loss of a neo-imperialistic empire in Africa with the CFA Franc is the cost of said legacy continuing.
2027 French presidential election – Wikipedia
Why France is Actually Preparing for War With Russia (youtube.com)
https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-two-term-limit-france-presidency-bullshit/?s=09
The Conservatarian Millennial 