The 2024 election doesn’t even (officially) have its nominees so far and speculation about who will be running for the 2028 presidential election is already running high. The decision by Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) to endorse Donald Trump after his election loss and previous campaign comments have been framed as his attempt to remain in good standing with parts of the base, he would need to win in 2028. The Trumpian loyalists are as incorrigible towards descent from their dear leader as ever, but DeSantis appears to be preparing for the future and licking his wounds from what was a disastrous Republican campaign that I supported, but I even have to admit structural problems with. However, he is far from the only Republican that is reportedly showing interest in the race and there are already problem candidates coming into focus.
Donald Trump, Jr. hasn’t ruled out a run in 2028 which is a fancy way of saying that he’s gotten a taste of the Republican limelight and could attempt to use the network of Trump loyalists to propel a presidential bid over seasoned GOP politicians. If Donald Trump, Sr. loses this election as one would probably expect him to if he is criminally indicted (and his court performances have shown goose eggs throughout the year thus far), no one is going to want another Trump running on the Republican ticket again except for the “Republicans” who care more about obnoxious MAGA performance grifting than actually being politically knowledgeable and organized. Is the younger as bad as his father regarding his reputation with moderates? No, and he’s even been softer on some issues that deserve some praise such as gay marriage where GOPers might have disagreements if they belong to the religious wing of the party, but understand that he will still be hit with having the last name Trump while failing to get the same appeal among the most diehard and ignorant of his father’s cohort.
Contrast that with Governor Brian Kemp (R-GA), someone who is desperately needed to run for Georgia’s Senate seat in 2026 against freshman Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA), but has been frequently mentioned as someone who had defeated both Trumpian primary voters and Democrats inside of his own state. While the expectation is that he will likely run for Senate if the NRSC is run by capable leadership (in other words, don’t let Rick Scott (R-FL) anywhere near the organization again with a ten-foot pole), a presidential bid would offer Republicans with someone who has the benefits of Ron DeSantis’s conservative governance without the social awkwardness. When adjusting for his appeal in the suburbs which are uniquely repellent towards Trumpism, Kemp might even be better performing than DeSantis nationally because of his ability to win over moderate Democrats instead of relating everything to his state exclusively but being able to nationalize his campaign beyond the Atlanta suburbs. If Kemp were to become the Republican nominee, that would mean the GOP would have an almost impenetrable strength in the Southeastern United States where the party already performs well but could theoretically improve if the federal conditions for states like his home state, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia improve for the GOP.
Overall, this is February 2024 with the expectation that the Republican primary in 2028 will be the first “real” primary since 2016 where the GOP establishment can hope for someone not named Trump and someone reasonably moderate to be nominated. This year was supposed to be the year that Trump faced serious competition, but Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis splitting each other’s vote while Vivek Ramaswamy allegedly working as a stealth agent for Donald Trump to sabotage DeSantis ultimately undermined that effort. We’ll see if 2028 produces someone better for the nomination or if we can look forward to more Trump in the coming years which means more losing for everyone but the very people he claims to stand against.
Sources: Looking Beyond 2024: Who’s Winning the 2028 Presidential Election? – POLITICO
2026 United States Senate election in Georgia – Wikipedia
The Conservatarian Millennial 