2026-2028 Senate Election Predictions, 3-2-2024, The Issue With Trumpian Senators In 2024

The newer class of Trumpian Senators can be exemplified by one word…meh. Consider that all of them have structural issues regarding their credibility between Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-MO) being taken down in internet arguments regularly (he was the moderate alternative in 2022 against former Gov. Eric Greitens (R-MO), mind you), Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) making enemies left, right, and center over his blocking of military promotions that ended up failing anyway, and then J.D. Vance (R-OH) who has managed to be a performance artist on many fronts. While some of these politicians were cheered on by some individuals, as I had cheered on Vance in the past as an obvious example, their lack of political ability and knowhow is now threatening the ability of Republicans to claim the House, Senate, and all other rungs of government moving forward. Let me provide some examples.

Darrel Rowland on X: “Ohio GOP Sen JD Vance: If I don’t get more money, GOP may never win again “At this point, if I don’t do a complete 180 on the fundraising front, not only will I have to possibly SHUT DOWN my fundraising efforts, but Republicans may never win a race again. Help SAVE AMERICA now!” https://t.co/XEFfkweNUH” / X (twitter.com)

https://apnews.com/article/tuberville-military-holds-senate-officers-45c4230a8aee5222bf32b43823e29acc

            J.D. Vance isn’t up for re-election until 2028 and Ohio is considered a Republican state now having shifted heavily to the right in the past few years, but he has stated in a cryptic tweet that he would have to shut down fundraising if he didn’t receive assistance and that Republicans may never win another race again if they didn’t help. He doesn’t need to fundraise well now necessarily, but him doing this poorly suggests that he has virtually no durability on the fundraising or campaigning front meaning that the NRSC may have to bail him out again when he’s up for re-election. The idea of him winning election was that he’d have the infrastructure to survive re-election without needing funds being siphoned from challenging Senators like Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-NV), Maggie Hassan (D-NH), John Fetterman (D-PA), Mark Kelly (D-AZ), and Raphael Warnock (D-GA). If Republicans are busy having to keep Vance afloat again, this means that they’ll have to keep conservative projections for their potential gains in the Senate.

Jennifer Bendery on X: “Asked Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) for his take on the Alabama Supreme Court ruling that embryos are children. In the span of 3 mins, he said he was “all for it,” didn’t agree with it, supports IVF and just needs to read the bill. (There is no bill.) https://t.co/i3WUnyK1ch” / X (twitter.com)

            Moving onto Tommy Tuberville, his response to certain political subjects has been a muddled affair to say the least. The premise of him entering Congress was the first major trial run of entering Congress based on loyalty to Donald Trump versus any ideological devotion to conservative concepts and the in-vitro fertilization debate is a perfect example of this dissonance. According to the Huffington Post, Tuberville responded to the Alabama Supreme Court decision giving four vastly different answers to a question surrounding IVF implying either he had a multi-faceted answer he didn’t know how to convey or that he didn’t understand the issue and was coasting off general platitudes and hoping that it would stick. Usually when you are asked about anything regarding pregnancy, abortion, or fertility, that issue is personal enough for women as life-givers that being indecisive is equivalent to being dead in the water on the issue, something that Democrats are experts at weaponizing against traditionally old male Republicans who don’t know how to defend themselves.

Looking Beyond 2024: Who’s Winning the 2028 Presidential Election? – POLITICO

            The one bright spot in Trump’s endorsements from the 2020-2022 cycle has been Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL), a woman who has overperformed her baseline being both more conservative that most of her colleagues yet more likable than most of them as well. This may have to do with the fact that she is a woman and is able to have a friendlier face than the burly men who usually carry the Trump endorsement, but Britt’s cross-endorsement from both former Senator Richard Shelby (R-AL) and former President Donald Trump helped give her a decisive boost as Shelby’s chief of staff. This experience, something many Trumpian figures lack in government to detriment of their job performance, is reminiscent of the old-fashioned Republicans of old. In touch with the sentiments of the base, but with the practical methodology of how to actually get the goods to her constituents through legislation. She is probably the greatest bright spot out of the entire 2022 freshman class of Senators for the Republicans (sorry Ted Budd!) and will probably be in the running for higher office one day to the surprise of no one with political know-how.

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