2026 Gubernatorial Election Predictions, 4-7-2024, The Republican Field To Challenge Josh Shapiro In 2026 Is Schismatic

There was recently a meeting of the Pennsylvania Leadership Conference where attendees were asked to write-in their list of preferred gubernatorial nominees for the Republican nomination in 2026, something that will be of major consequence for Pennsylvania Republicans given that they’ve lost the governorship three consecutive times since 2014. While one would think that the party would have a great unifying candidate that would settle the issue with Doug Mastriano being nominated again, the issue becomes who that candidate is. Donald Trump has been alarmed by Doug Mastriano’s stances on abortion, which are admittedly too far for my blog which dedicates a far amount of coverage to pro-life coverage, but would he endorse a Republican with enough gravitas to make the Mastriano worry subside so the GOP can compete in the general election?

            According to the write-in results, the main person the party is looking at as their frontrunner is Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R-PA) who is running for re-election this year while facing a spirited challenge from state representative Ryan Bizzarro (D-PA). She “leads” with 7% of the vote compared to 6% for Doug Mastriano, 4% for Congressman Scott Perry (R-PA), and the rest of the competition getting scattered support. This is the type of primary that Democrats would love to influence by pumping money into the primary and getting Mastriano as the nominee again, especially with him being so unpopular the first time around against Gov. Josh Shapiro. While Stacy Garrity may not be seen as the field clearing candidate that Republicans want just now, they should strongly consider her winning re-election as a potential audition for the governorship two years later.

            More importantly, Gov. Josh Shapiro is considered a rising star within the Democratic Party as someone who can win by lopsided margins in a swing state against a MAGA stalwart and as someone with cutthroat political strategic instinct. He has been mentioned constantly as a possible presidential contender and shouldn’t be excluded from discussions from the Democratic bench, even if the anti-Semitism of some in the party has been a hurdle for prominent Jewish politicians to overcome. Thus, it becomes necessary for Republicans to consider every Democratic governorship they can flip between now and 2028 to be a chance to deny Democrats a new rising star for the Presidency. If Stacy Garrity can be part of denying Democrats the White House in that way, that is worth ignoring petty arguments over what type of Republican the base should be throwing it’s support behind at this moment.

            On a final note, Stacy Garrity has been a major proponent of Republicans using mail-in voting and using what early voting is available to them. This is in sharp contrast to other Republicans in the MAGA compass which have railed against both forms of voting which hampered GOP electoral performance for the past few years consecutively. While the RNC under Ronna McDaniel had inarguably been a personal waste bucket for lavish dinners for the party elite while hardworking candidates are forced to metaphorically grind in the salt mines, the refusal by some to use mail or early voting has been a major disadvantage that has haunted the party from a structural perspective. Garrity as a candidate appears, based on her previous actions, that she would not waste precious time and would immediately keep the election tight with Josh Shapiro in 2026 to the best of her ability.

Sources: John Cole on X: “Pennsylvania Leadership Conference’s annual poll asked attendees to write-in who they’d like to see run for the Republican Party nomination for Governor in 2026. Treasurer Stacy Garrity led the way with 7%, followed by state Sen. Doug Mastriano at 6%. #PLC2024 https://t.co/IW0V8HRIem” / X (twitter.com)

These Democrats could be contenders for their party’s nomination 2028. But first, they must boost Biden in 2024 | CNN Politics

Boosting of Doug Mastriano ‘Paying Off’ for Dems in Pennsylvania: Pollsters (newsweek.com)

https://redstate.com/jenvanlaar/2022/12/14/exclusive-analysis-of-rnc-spending-since-2017-shows-millions-were-spent-on-private-jets-limousines-luxury-retreats-broadway-shows-and-more-n673852

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